What happens to Suburbia homes?

So, what will happen to houses as the suburbs decline? The forecast is brutal.

We talked with our neighbor Ursula, age 80, local Pierce County historian.  We read this insightful but bleak news story in the NYTimes. 

Here's the answer:  spare parts. 

Yes, your suburban house, where you raised your kids and have loving memories - - will be used for spare parts.   On our trip home from the cabin last week, we passed house-after-house with an SUV or pick up truck in the front yard for sale.  Paul Krugman says houses last longer than SUVs.  But he's wrong.  The rodents start the rot almost immediately.  And burglars steal the pipes and other valuable metals for resale.  Within a few years, apparently, your homestead is falling apart. 

You can sell it, of course.  Or can you?  This year it was pick up trucks in the front yards for sale.  Last year it was snowmobiles.  Suburban houses are likely to continue decline in value.  We heard of a Wisconsin golf course being turned into a natural bird sanctuary.  There's a surplus of golf courses. Obviously a golf course is worth a lot more than trees for birds.  But if no one will buy it, then the golf course (and a suburban house) is worthless. 

A suburb probably can be converted back to farm land in a week  (if you know, tell us).  As an ad for a lousy house in downtown Portland recently noted, "Remember, you're buying the land."   It's all about the land.  Future farmland is our guess. What's your guess?

Comments

[Rich Loken]

Claiming that all homes in the suburbs will be left to rot is too simplistic. If you think that everyone will move into citys and ignore inner-ring suburbia - I'll take that bet. Outer ring suburban population may decline, but with the growing popularity of working at home, I doubt whether you'll see them gone in twenty or even forty years.

[Kassia]

I live in a 100 yr old house on 2+ acres - I raise chickens and have become a very popular person supplying fresh eggs to my pals. Seems like the focus is back to local foods (see http://100milediet.org/)
yet in Eugene, we continue to pave farmland to create more suburbia at a rapid rate (see http://www.farmland.org/resources/fote/about/maps.asp)
we do not have a well developed mass transit - lots of bike paths...as the cost of gas rises I am seeing many many more bikes!

[Bob Podgorski]

NOT! Population growth needs to go somewhere and I suspect it will be the contiued, while slowing, growth of the outer ring/Suburbia -with some settlement within city environs. Let's not forget that many of these Suburbs are serviced by commuter rail - With this advantage (Rail Stations often within 5 miles of ones residence, it's unlikely people will pass up the chance to live where there is less crowding, more green and the opportunity to visit work occasionally by rail. Those in rural america, not retired, or not tied to the land or services to agriculture may find themselves wanting.

The true crisis is in the transportation we drive - gas sucking vehicles using oil based lubricants, to boot. Gradually, we will become more like the Europians. Smaller cars - more efficient. Much more conservative in our habits and demands, focusing more on necessity and less on flamboyance. A new Prius today has a three month wait due to demnand. We are already making the adjustments. It won't be long before we see change at all levels of carbon fuel use. Take for example municipalities that erected useless and unnecessary stop signs within their communities. These consumes extra gas in stops and re-acceleration. These will be removed and replaced with appropriate speed limits where safety is not an issue (around schools, etc.)- just one other (brilliant idea) change we'll make inevitably at the grass roots. Eventually Nuclear powered energy, solar and wind power plants will drive electric trains, electric boats, electric cars, snowmobiles and undoubtedly better, lighter, smaller, longer lasting storage batteries. If we can go to the Moon in a few years from our earlier modest beginnings, we can conquer this energy crisis. We will eventually return, after a time, to our glutinous ways - Because, mankind continues to dream and want more. But I foresee a time of imaginative conservation, innovation at all levels before the return to acquiring more, bigger and consumptive stuff.

Just my thoughts.