Nine Shift

Urge your grandkids to learn to drive - - just in case

Another original Nine Shift prediction: between 2030 and 2040 your children will be urging your grandchildren to learn to drive - - just in case. 

By 2030 few people under age 40 will be driving. They will all be on trains and light rail.  But the old folks will urge them to learn to drive - - just in case. 

When my mother was growing up in the 1920s and 1930s, my grandfather made sure she knew how to ride a horse, "just in case" as my mother put it.  What circumstances were "just in case" my mother didn't know.

But my co-author Julie knows what "just in case" means.  When she was a child, she had a horse and had to ride pell mell through the fields to get the doctor for a family emergency.  Photo: Julie and her pony, early 1950s

Bail out the buggy business

   Exactly 100 years ago, with carriage sales declining, my great grandfather in Racine was forced to retire and sell his buggy business to some guy named John Deere.  We’re not sure what John did with it, but my family has been bitter ever since that the government failed to bail out the buggy business. As we all know, carriage manufacturers all went overseas and today few Americans own a domestically built buggy. But it’s not too late.

 

   Here in Wisconsin the horse and buggy is statistically the fastest growing transportation in the state (the Amish population has doubled).  In New York, carriage rides around Central Park this month will be up double digits over November, and while critics say it is just a holiday season blip, this is just fantasy talk.  And millions more Americans will enviously eye a carriage every evening watching the TCM classic movie channel.  The data and facts present an air-tight case to Congress.

 

   The bail out of the horseless carriage business, however, is futile.  Car sales have declined in the first decade of this century even more than carriage sales declined in the first decade of the last. 

      At the same time train ridership is at a 50 year high. The Wall Street Journal reported that the nation’s electorate  approved 23  mass transit projects in November totaling $75 billion in funding.

 

   Last Christmas our 22 year old son Willie came home and told us he couldn’t get a ride anywhere because none of his friends had a car.  So my wife and I made the ultimate sacrifice and offered to give him our second car.  “No thanks Dad,” he replied, “If I can’t get there on public transportation, I don’t need to get there at all.”   This year I’m going to offer him a buggy. 

 

 

Trying to bail out the Industrial Age

It's not just the auto industry in decline. It's a whole way of life. It's the Industrial Age that is disappearing.

But most adults still don't get it. 

In decline:
* Broadcast television
* Newspapers.
* Radio
and a host of other industries. 

Alan Sepinwell, in an op-ed article in the NY Times, reports on the "end of empire" days of NBC-CBS-ABC. The best quote in his article is this:

"This reminds me of a joke Tina Fey told at the Television Critics Association awards ceremony. She thanked us “for making ‘30 Rock’ the most successful cable show on broadcast television,” and added: “Oh, it’s a great time to be on broadcast television, isn’t it? It’s exciting! It’s like being in vaudeville in the ’60s!”

It's exactly like vaudeville in the 60s, but Sepinwell doesn't get it. Meanwhile, over at the BBC, business reporterTheo Legett doesn't get it either when he writes, "

“The big three have also been undone by a combination of factors: a hangover from their glory days, strategic mistakes and sheer bad luck.”

Should we bail out Detroit?

  Some Detroit church congregations are praying for cars. If you've never seen an SUV on a a church altar, just click here. 
   But should we bail out Detroit?  This month's bailout is only the first, so there's plenty of need for discussion.
   Amtrak is begging for more cars - - rail cars that is. Trains are packed and train ridership continues at a 50 year high even as the price of gas plunges.  New Nine Shift original evidence suggests that Gen Y is driving less than any previous generation in the last half century.
  Here's our top 4 reasons why Detroit Bail Out #1 won't work:
1. There's no one to buy all those cars piling up on the lots.
2. If we want to save auto jobs, then let them make train cars. In World War II, the auto makers shifted to making planes in less than 12 months. 
3. Bail Out #1 will only lead to Bail Out #2.
4. Long term, there is no future to the auto industry. People under age 30 from here on simply don't want to buy cars.
   What do you think?  Should we bail out Detroit? And is the decline of the auto unstoppable? Click on Comments and tell us.

Is the recession a renaissance?

Is the recession an opportunity for a renaissance in your organization?
Tom Steiner, keynoter for the big record breaking LERN conference last month in San Francisco thinks so. He says we should use the recession to change the way we do things, and look at it as an opportunity to transition into organizations better positioned for success in the 21st century. What do you think?
   Is the recession an opportunity for renaissance, or is it smarter to pull back, lower your risk, and take no chances.  Click on "Comments" and give us your thoughts.

Vote for Your Top Story of 2008

The year 2008 was pivotal in shaping the 21st century.
   When historians of this century look back at the year 2008, what event will have had the most influence on the rest of the century?
   Here's Nine Shift's Top Ten stories of 2008.
   Then, whether it is on our list or not, click on "Comment" and tell us your choice for the Top Story of 2008.

- Telecommuting to become 'mainstay of corporate America'
- Home offices surge
- Toronto schools first system to no longer punish students for late homework
- Suburbs start to go into decline
- California voters approve nation's first high speed train
- The Big 3 car companies on the verge of bankruptcy
- Gen Y turns out to vote and makes a difference
- Skilled worker shortage detected, predicted to grow
- Train ridership continues at record pace
- The $100 laptop becomes available to children in the underdeveloped world

Now click on "Comments" and tell us your choice for the Top Story of 2008.

Please write Paul Krugman about Nine Shift

   With the new Obama administration there is an opportunity to get America moving in the right direction in the 21st century. To gain some visibility among decision makers, Nine Shift is asking you to write a letter to Paul Krugman, Nobel winning columnist for The New York Times, and encourage him to read Nine Shift. Snail mail letters have more impact than email, so write something/anything.

Mail the letter to:

Paul Krugman
The New York Times
620 Eighth Avenue
New York, NY 10018

Thanks!

Education: No penalty for late work

In an historic decision, the Learning Resources Network (LERN) became the first national education association to say there should be no penalty for late work submitted by students.

The decision was made by the LERN Board of Directors in a meeting last month in San Francisco. The vote was 7-0-1  (one abstention). 

The motion was:  "To support the grading of students based on learning and knowledge rather than on behavior, including support for dropping penalties for late work." 

 Chair of the Board Paula Hogard of the University of Tulsa, Tulsa, OK, led the effort.  Hogard, born and raised in the United Kingdom, is doing extensive research on innovative teaching and learning for the 21st century in both England and the United States. 

  A webinar press conference will be held to announce the decision and rationale behind it.  We have a few copies of the LERN Staff Research Report  "From behavior to knowledge" that was prepared for Board members before the historic vote.  If you want to be one of the first to get one, email me at draves@lern.org

The end of meetings, we hope

Am on the road this week making a final presentation of our consulting recommendations for a client, an association. 

Like seeing people, like face-to-face, but boy is the travel time a big waste.  George Gilder, in another great Peter Day BBC  "Global Business" radio show, says the airlines will be greatly and negatively impacted when the technology allows us to have online meetings in virtual space.

Two great quotes from Gilder:

"When everything else is abundant, time becomes a scarcity."

"Why go somewhere else when the world can come to you."

Here's to the end of meetings that take too much time, and the beginning of more meaningful human interaction and online meetings. Come soon please. Photo: George Gilder

Economics: Paul Krugman 'gets' the 21st Century

Economist and Nobel winner Paul Krugman did a fascinating interview with Tom Ashbrook's On Point December 1. Worth listening to online. 

Krugman addressed many of our Nine Shifts.  He gets the new economy, government's role, etc. He's one of the few Americans who "gets it" about the economy of the 21st Century.