Nine Shift

Cars: Government Conspiracy!

Try to find out the extent to which Gen Y is buying cars as compared to previous generations.
You cannot.  We've been trying for six months.

This week I visited with my local librarian, who has been trying to help me find data on car buying by Gen Y.  She told me, "The auto manufacturers don't want to share that information."  That makes sense. Car companies are panicking.  They know Gen Y is not buying cars.  They don't want to make that public.

But why would the U.S. government try to hide the facts? 
* For 30 years, the Commerce Department has collected data on Vehicles per Household (VHH) by age and marital status.  When I asked for the latest data, an official in the Commerce Department replied that they have stopped collecting that data.  Why? 

* This month I asked Eric Bolton of the transportation department for age data on people participating the Cars for Clunkers program.  A local dealer told me that age/date of birth was part of the information forwarded to the government.  A spokesperson got back to me that they are not collecting that data.

No one is saying how many cars Gen Y is buying.  They know.  Is it a conspiracy?  Or just really bad judgment?  What do you think?  Tell us : : :

Electric cars: Invade Bolivia!

It is the season of electric cars.  You will hear a lot in the next two years about new electric cars coming out. We have cited a number of reasons why electric cars will not save the automobile.

Here's another reason.  NineShifter Paul Franklin of Portland, OR, is in touch with folks in the alternative fuel industry.  One of the big secrets, sorta secret anyway, is the fact that lithium supplies are at "peak" unless more discoveries are made.

So we have enough lithium for electric cars for ten years, then nothing.  AND the biggest location of those lithium supplies is Bolivia.  Here's a great story from the BBC on it. 

NineShift asks, so with the U.S. having or seeking a military presence in oil rich countries such as Saudia Arabia, and of course invading Iraq for its oil, will we invade Bolivia next? 

Father to Son On Your Birthday

Willie, today is your 23rd birthday.  As your father, I want to thank you for the 21st Century.

 Your mother and I are proud of you, will always be proud of you.  But if there's one thing that everybody else should know about you, it is this.  You have given us, and thousands of people who come into contact with the Nine Shift book, the Nine Shift blog, and the Nine Shift speeches - - an understanding and enjoyment of the 21st century that we would not have known without you.

It is your generation, of course. But you alone have said things and done things in a way, often humorous, always worth repeating, that is unique. 

Just last week another person came up after one of my speeches and told me she loves the Willie stories. This has happened over and over again.  Thank you for the 21st century. Photo: Willie as a child, photo and coloring by his mother.

Some of the best books are in the trash

Whenever Julie wants to get a great book, she heads to the town dump.

Up north, there is no garbage collection. You take it to the town dump. And, our wonderful dump also has a place where people can drop off stuff, and other people take it.  Lots of books get dumped there.

"Play in Education," written in 1915 by Joseph Lee, a founder of the National Playground Association and contemporary and friend of John Dewey, was one great find.  The book was in the University of Utah library for at least thirty years.  Now it's at the dump.  It is as fascinating and relevant as it was 100 years ago.

How much of our history are we losing this way? Are they all being put online before being put in the trash?  Why is something 100 years old deemed irrelevant?  What do you think? No answers here, just more trips to the dump!  Photo: Julie passes the garbage truck heading to the books at the town dump.

The Industrial Age collapses: Part III

It's after the deadline. Mercury Marine is leaving Fond du Lac, 1,000 - 2,000 jobs will be lost. But then the company allows the union workers to vote a third time. 

Now the workers and community leaders in Stillwater, Oklahoma, are enraged.  During the vote, my mother tells me, "We'll see whether we have a town left."  The governor of Wisconsin hints the state will contribute money to keep the company in FDL.

This time the workers vote to accept the company's new 30% wage cuts. Now Stillwater loses 400 jobs that will be moved to FDL.  Everyone in Wisconsin is relieved, thankful. The Governor predicts "when the economy recovers" that Mercury will employ even more workers (the Governor is never right about keeping factory jobs). Even this blog writer is pleased Mercury will stay in FDL.

A happy Labor Day, says the city manager.  But is it? NineShift predicts:
-If Gen Y is not buying cars, how can they possibly be buying boats and motors?
-The days of getting and keeping a good job with a high school degree are over.  $12 an hour is not a good job.
-Within ten years, NineShift predicts that outboard motor sales will continue to drop. Eventually the company will continue its lay offs.

My hometown of Fond du Lac has delayed the day of reckoning, postponed the inevitable. And like the rest of America, continues to be blind to the decline of the Industrial Age and the rise of the knowledge worker. Only to be blindsided once more in the coming decade.  

The Industrial Age collapses: Part II

After the union workers vote to lose their jobs, the blogs of the local Fond du Lac Reporter fill with emotions and views of all kinds.  This is where it gets interesting. This is the agony, the sense of loss, the heartbreak of the old Industrial Age collapsing.  'Listen' to a sample of the  comments:

"The problem with this whole situation was this. We have union commitee "men" with no formal education, hopefully a high school diploma, They are overpaid and undereducated. These are the leaders of the union. They are also all older and soon to retire."

 

mm, so you are telling me that Merc, when they wrote that contract should have known that the stock market would crash, gas and oil prices would hit record highs, the banking industry would fail, housing market bubble would burst and large anchor companies would go bankrupt. Did you know the economy was going to wind up in the crapper when you signed it ?

 

there is as much incompetence at the corporate level as on the shop floor.

 

If Mercury can't make an engine that competes on price with all the other manufacturers in the market then nobody will buy it.

 

The government did this to us.

 

Sooner or later we will all be living in a cesspool of minimum wage jobs, living in "over-priced shacks", and the only place to afford to go buy anything, will be Wal-mart!!!

 

You can't even fill a cart with American made products at wal mart, much less union made!

 

We did this to ourselves. you want cheap stuff yet you want big pay for doing a job that anybody can learn in an hour. it doesn't add up.

 

The days of the unions are almost over. They destroyed the steel industry, destroyed the auto industry, are destroying the airline industry and are well on their way to destroying good jobs in Fond du Lac.

 

It is down a track with no return..anyone remember Giddings and Lewis (IAMAW?), Rueping Leather, Wells Manufactuing, the Soo Line railroad? The world's economy has changed - either get on "board" or your future might be derailed.

 

Roll up your pants people, the stupidity is getting deep in here!!!

 

Hey IDIOT, if there is NO union, there is NO CONTRACT to work under, which the company would love to have. That way EVERYONE working there would be making a dollar over minimum wage with NO benifits! I would say calling you a MORON is "taking it easy on you"!!!

 

With no Merc, there is no union

 

This mentality is exactly hoe yuo become a socialistic state. Too many people content with handing over our rights and money and let someone else look out for us. That way we don't actually have to think on our own or educate ourselves.

 

Are you people really so blind! Believe everything that Merc posted on their web site?

There's still time before the company deadline to reverse the vote, so a few workers try to get a second vote taken. The union botches the job, some votes cast and counted, many others not before the midnight deadline. Workers are now reconsidering, understanding that maybe the company was not bluffing and they might just move everything to Stillwater.  Business and government leaders are panicking, trying behind the scenes to put together millions of dollars of corporate aid. And then there's a third vote.  Stay tuned!

The Industrial Age collapses: Part I

Mercury Marine, probably the world's largest (certainly the best) maker of outboard motors, has a factory that is literally a mile long in my hometown of Fond du Lac, Wisconsin.

But because of falling sales, Mercury has to cut its workforce wages, down from a liveable (house, spouse, kids) $20 an hour down to a meager $12 an hour (good luck with the house, spouse and kids).

With 2,000 workers in Fond du Lac (FDL), pop 42,000, it is the largest employer by far, one of two great industrial giants from the old manufacturing age. Every worker creates 4 jobs, so at least 8,000 people are dependent on it.

Unlike auto companies, which just close plants, Mercury Marine gives its union and workers a choice: 1) Take $12 an hour;  or  2) Keep making $20 an hour for 2-3 years and then lose your job as we move to Stillwater, Oklahoma. 

The workers in the union vote.  They vote to lose their jobs!  The town is incredulous. Unbelievable. Thousands of other jobs will be lost.  The county executive Alan Buechtel says the town could become another Detroit, hollow, vacant buildings, unemployment, dismal.   People are enraged. But the story continues. Stay tuned.

Banking: Stealing in the 21st Century

As we enter a new age, the new technology creates the need for new laws. Here's an example.

Banks and other super large financial institutions are unethically stealing from ordinary investors by finding out about trades ahead of time and then buying or selling to take advantage of them.

They do this with a computer. According to a BBC story, it takes one-third of a second to complete a trade (buy or sell) on the stock market.  Within that third of a second, super large financial firms have computers that spot the impending trade, step in and buy or sell ahead of time, getting the lower price and forcing the stock price up.  The person or institution making the trade gets a worse price, and the super large financial firm makes money when they sell at the higher price, seconds, minutes or hours later.  If a person did this, it would be called "insider trading" and the person would go to jail. If a computer does it, it's legal.

It is unethical. It should be illegal.  And one more reason why our financial institutions are not only unregulated for the 21st century, but stealing from the average person, small business and small organization.

Education: Why school is a nightmare

I was listening to the terrific BBC commentator Lucy Kellaway talking about helping her daughter to prepare for a school exam.

School is a nightmare.  There is nothing at work, or from work, that can cause such psychic damage as school exams, noted Kellaway. 

She said that she herself still has nightmares about school.  So do I. And my brilliant co-author Julie Coates did a study of my college class 'most outstanding memory' from Carleton College. The most outstanding memory, according to the submissions by my fellow graduates - - nightmares, recurring, still going on today, almost 40 years after graduation.  This from graduates from a top ranked college, all of whom are successful.  Nobody going in, or coming out of Carleton College, could be called an academic failure.  And yet school and college so emphasizes failure, so focuses on judgment instead of learning and motivation and encouragement, that the most outstanding memory of most college graduates is nightmares, the most prominent sign of the psychic damage Kellaway rightly identifies. 

Cars: Someone famous will be killed around 2015-2017

The latest NineShift prediction: someone famous will be killed around 2015 - 2017.  Here's why it will be a big deal.

Cars will experience a short spurt between 2011 and 2014, as smaller hybrid and electric cars enter the market.  But overall sales will still decline.

We know that a. you cannot drive and work at the same time; and b. cars are destroying the world. That's why Gen Y is not buying cars, not driving, as much as previous generations.

But the tipping point - - we predict - - will be the third reason trains are better than cars.  Cars kill a million people a year.  No big deal, unless of course you are one of the million. 

This month a graphic anti-texting video on YouTube is a hit, showing four people being killed as a result of a nice girl texting while driving. Posted by the Gwent police, it has been viewed 6 million times. 

This will be the tipping point. Around 2015-2017, someone not only famous but important will be killed in a car accident, and the loss will be felt nationally.  Instead of resignation, the public will express outrage, and cars will take a deep plunge in sales, never to recover.