Driving and the End of the Auto Age

What is really fascinating is that the decline in driving is generational.

Young people are driving 37% fewer miles than previous generations of young people.
This means the End of the Auto Age.  Cars are toast.  Suburbs are toast.

Baby Boomers, age 40-65, are 46% of the population but they constitute 59% of the miles driven. So boomers are clueless that young people are not driving. 

But Boomers are turning 65 by the thousands every day now.  And driving drops after 65.  So Boomers are now contributing to the End of the Auto Age as well.

THIRD FACTOR:  telework.  People who telework drive less, and want to drive less. 

The combination of Gen Y, older people and teleworkers mean that by 2020 the Auto Age will be at its End.

Comments

[Suzanne]

As a telecommuter, I can totally relate to this. In fact, where I live, we often say,"oh I didn't want to cross the bridge" - meaning, I'll just get what I need or go out to eat or whatever on my side of town (East or West)rather than cross over the river to the other side. Funny thing is, I only live about 2 miles from the bridge. It's not like it's that long of a drive. I just hate getting in the car.

[Kit Opie]

Data on road deaths in US is interesting http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2011/nov/22/us-road-accident-casualties

[D. P. Lubic]

As you can see in the comments following the main post below, the idea that Americans want to ride trains is controversial with some people:

http://www.infrastructurist.com/2011/11/18/the-daily-dig-death-to-high-speed-rail-maybe/

"Cars are toast. Suburbs are toast."

Ironically, as big a rail supporter as I am, and as long as I have been seeing this generational change going on (about 20 years now), I still find this hard to imagine--or more specifically, what a post-car, or at least a post-car-crazy America would look like. Part of me would really enjoy seeing the clock run backwards and watching the revival of things like those old trolley suburbs and lots of house restoration jobs and such (not to mention seeing the trolleys come back, too), but somehow to see this country start looking like the era from 1910 to about 1945 (but with computers and modern medicine) is probably not likely to happen. I can see the McMansion developments becoming slums in some cases due to excessive driving distances and the poor workmanship and materials involved, but I don't know about the rest.

Would either the host of the site or other readers care to share thoughts on this?

[windshield repair everett]

Young people are driving 37% fewer miles than earlier generations of young people.
This means the Finish of the Auto Age. Cars are toast. Suburbs are toast.

[D. P. Lubic]

More on the subject, courtesy of a poster named "Rubber Toe," at the California High Speed Rail Weblog:

RubberToe
Dec 6th, 2011 at 08:14

"Lots of interesting correlated stories in the LA Times today:

"1. A story about how teens are putting off getting their drivers licenses, while the Boomers are hanging onto theirs as long as possible. “teenagers think traffic congestio and high fuel costs are the real nightmare”. Gas is up 33 cents per gallon from a year earlier…

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas-prices-20111206,0,2458028.story

"2. Protesters from the Occupy movement are now voicing their concerns about transit issues. “The groups also said a proposed expansion of the 710 Freeway could be bad for local communities and criticized spending on such freeway projects, saying it would serve more people and be better for the environment to put funds into mass transit.”

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-march-20111204,0,6610806.story

"3. Super secret US stealth drone down in Iran. The bad guys are going to get a big boost in figuring out how to wreak additional havoc in the Middle East, you know, the place where all the “go juice” comes from. “It’s bad — they’ll have everything in terms of the secret technology in the aircraft, the official said. “And the Chinese or the Russians will have it too”…

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-1206-drone-iran-20111206,0,928838.story

"This is all just from the last couple days. It’s pretty clear where all this is leading, and Robert has pointed this out here before. Young people get it, they don’t want to be sitting around behind the wheel in traffic. The light rail system in LA has seen “year over year” increases in ridership for 24 consecutive months now, with no end is sight as the system expands:

http://transittalk.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=eastside&action=display&thread=975&page=4

"Gas prices are going up, and the first “black swan” that flies over the Middle East could make the spike something that would scare the most grizzled veteran of the 1973 gas lines. It would be supremely ironic if the politicians in the state were so pre-occupied with the recent polls suggesting that sentiment about the HSR system has shifted, that they decided to halt construction of the first segment in the valley right about the time that gas hits $5.00 per gallon this summer.

"One can only hope that the confluence of events that gets us moving toward a less “fossil fueled” future picks up enough steam fast enough to offset the daily and weekly shifts in public opinion caused by the current recession. Lets take another poll when gas reaches $5.00 per gallon, and LA/SF flights are $200 one way, and then see what J. Q. Public thinks?"

RT

Full page on which this appeared is here:

http://www.cahsrblog.com/2011/12/penny-wise-pound-foolish/#comment-131213

[William Draves]

Great comments everyone. Thanks much.

[D. P. Lubic]

Ah, I've been waiting for this to appear on-line--an editorial by John Philips of “Car and Driver” that sees the trouble in the big-driving generation getting not just older, but just plain old:

http://www.caranddriver.com/columns/john-phillips-i-have-seen-the-quitters-and-they-are-us-column

This is from a driving enthusiasts’ magazine. . .you have to wonder what this means when you consider the source. . .have fun.

[classic restoration]

Looks cool though. Just finish what you started.

[Patrick Gauer]

I believe it really depends on the person. Anyhow, the number of car purchasers is increasing every year, so definitely the number of drivers will increase this 2012. Let's just hope the cars will be in good hands, especially the luxury ones.

[Motos Electricas Precios]

Excellent article like always!