Nine Shift

#9 America World Leader in Exporting Intangible Services

While America is currently in decline, there's hope.  The United States is the largest exporter of intangible services.

Intangible services are the most important economic sector for post-industrial nations in the 21st century. And exports generate the most jobs.  Forget manufacturing as a job creator.  It's intangibles and the Knowledge Work society that creates prosperity for post-industrial countries. 

Here's a fascinating chart showing the increase in intangible services, called "private services" because they exclude government.

#10 NineShift Discovers Solution to STEM Crisis

NineShift discovers the solution to the STEM crisis.

And NineShift co-author Julie Coates finds out why women don't go into STEM.  The STEM crisis is the biggest economic problem in post-industrial societies such as Canada and the United States.  Having enough STEM workers is key to prosperity in this century. 

Without a solution to the STEM crisis, we will have a shortage of 14 million STEM workers by 2017, says Anthony Carnevale, the leading training expert.  Coates and Draves have discovered the solution, which is no-cost (unlike the hundreds of millions of dollars government and foundations are spending on useless approaches). 

FREE Nine Shift Webinar Set for January 30

If you missed "Nine Shift for 2013,"  here's your chance to hear the webinar version.
FREE on Wednesday, January 30, 2013, at 2 pm Eastern  (1 pm Central, Noon Mountain, 11 am Pacfici).
Just click here to sign up.  No cost. No sales pitch.  Just one hour on the 21st Century with the unique Nine Shift perspective - - and predictions.

More laughs.  In discussing online privacy issues, Draves gets a singing telegram.  Only the telegram reveals embarrassing news to the 300 people in the room.  Draves looks on horrified as his new bank account password,  fertility clinic report and lawyer's advice that he plead guilty is sung.

Nine Shift for 2013 Gets Rave Reviews!

"You were on fire," said Terry Newman of Gilroy, CA, about our latest speech, 'Nine Shift for 2013: The Great American Comeback.'  A packed ballroom in Washington DC at the annual LERN conference gave us a great reception. So thanks to you all !

The talk featured skits, stories, jokes, a little music, and more hats. 

Don't forget to tell your organization or state/national association about Nine Shift. It makes a 'Wow' keynote for any conference.   Just email Tammy at info@lern.org

Opening skit:  NineShift kicks off the 2016 election campaign.  The campaign staff wearily wanders out to the tune of the Volga Boatmen.  They become more sprightly when they hear "Happy days are here again."   The skit was the prelude to the "Great American Comeback" NineShift predicts for 2016.

Two Keys to Strengthening Families

Here's the second part to my dialogue with a 'new friend' about families and gay rights.

He wrote last week, "To me, there are issues of greater importance and significance to the future of education and the economy, namely the strength and stability of our nation's families.  Despite the critical role of the family in raising each new generation, increasing numbers of detractors chip away at its' essential function and purpose." 

Right or wrong, here's my response:

I endorse your concern and support for families. And I would acknowledge that the stability and health of families is indeed more important than other issues that I addressed.  The health of families is also something that transcends a decade or century, and was important in the Agrarian Age, the Industrial Age and the Knowledge Society.

With respect to the health of families today, I have two thoughts.

One is that I maintain that if a small group of fortunate people (I use Rotary as the example as I have been a member to two different Rotary clubs in two different states and have experience with it) each mentored just one child from the most disadvantaged of situations in the local community, we could enhance the health of families, and future families, enormously.

My second thought is that there is clear evidence and research that the more inequality in wealth in a society (or even U.S. state) the lower the quality of life on just about every measurement one can name (health, mental health, longevity, etc.).  Basically if our states and nation had greater equality in income, we would have no homeless people.  So the inequality in wealth situation is clearly related to the health of families today from my perspective.

Photo: Two years ago when our foster son Sammie, and Willie, came home for Christmas.

Why It Is Important to Understand Gay Rights

This week I had a good email exchange on the topic of families and gay rights.

The big Nine Shift presentation in Washington DC before 300 people was quite an honor. Thanks to everyone who attended.  And to those who respectfully have a different point of view. One person wrote afterward and we had an excellent dialogue on the topic of families and gay rights.

Here's part of his response.  "To me, there are issues of greater importance and significance to the future of education and the economy, namely the strength and stability of our nation's families.I am interested in your perspective as to why gay marriage/rights issues are relevant to educating our nation's children."  I will post my reply on families next, but here's why it is important to understand gay rights.

This issue is important to understand because Generation Y, the largest generation in our country today and the heart of our future economic prosperity, has endorsed gay rights by a large majority.  It’s like civil rights for Boomers in the 1960s for Gen Y.  Because of this, cities and states have to accept gay rights/marriage or risk economic decline. And employers and workers (your students a few years from now) have to accept it or risk losing customers, jobs, and business.  So if Minnesota had passed a law restricting marriage to heterosexual couples (the vote last month failed), it would have experienced a huge decline in economic prosperity as young, college educated white collar professionals moved from (or did not move to) Minnesota, thus essentially taking down its economic vitality.  For your students, they need to recognize that they will be entering a workforce where gay people are accepted. And they will need to be able to work with gay people.  

One hundred years ago the issue in 1912 moving into 1913 was whether women should vote and work, and the effect on the family.  One could argue there is still an issue with respect to the health of the family about women working today.  There are millions of Gen X families who sacrifice so that one parent can stay home. And yet women working was, and is, a reality.  And we all accept, whether we agree or not, women in the workplace.  To do otherwise would jeopardize our personal careers and the prosperity of our local, state and national economy. 

So that’s why this is all happening, and why it is important to understand.  Again, we each may agree or disagree on this or any other issue, but from my perspective as a futurist, historian, economic and educational consultant, this is what’s happening and what we have to do to position our community, our citizens, and our nation for prosperity in this century.

Gay Rights: "I Voted for Mrs. Baldwin"

Gay rights have come a long way in just 15 years. My 84 year old neighbor illustrates it.

I was talking with my neighbor Ursula Peterson, a very smart woman who teaches me a lot. Last month she told me, "I voted for Mrs. Baldwin."   

Now Senator-elect Tammy Baldwin, America's first lesbian Senator, has never been a "Mrs."  But for Mrs. Peterson's WWII generation:
1."Mrs." was and is the highest sign of respect in addressing or speaking about a woman. 
2. This is a generation that protected their gay friends and relatives by never mentioning it.

My father had a boyhood, and lifelong, friend who was gay. He would visit, and neither would ever mention or acknowledge it.  My father would make a joke about women, and his friend would laugh along, while I wanted to scream that he was gay, but I now know my father knew and he was protecting his friend. (His friend also worked for the CIA, another topic off-limits, so I have no idea what they talked about!)

This was just 15 years ago. Things do change. And during a NineShift period (1900-1920; 2000-2020) they change very quickly.

Fiscal Cliff Biggest Lie of the Year

The Fiscal Cliff, borne out of a concern over the national debt, gets our nod as the biggest lie of the year.

Both Democrats and Republicans say the national debt is the biggest issue facing America today, and they are wrong. 

The biggest issue is building an infrastructure for the 21st century. The infrastructure including trains (not roads), four year college degrees (not two year), high speed Internet access for all (not dial up), mixed zoning (not Euclidean), reducing the inequality in wealth (not corporate welfare)  and health insurance (finally, here's one where we've made a start).

As Paul Krugman ceaselessly and uselessly points out, the U.S. does not have a big debt problem. Oh wait, we do have a debt problem - - the student debt problem.  

Nine Shift predicts that Congress will address 5% of the national debt problem in 2013, then declare victory and move on to other things. 

Lake shoreline from a canoe. Reflection in the water.

Why Gen Y Likes Unions

Gen Y likes unions. And they have good reasons.  On the day of this post, dock workers in Los Angeles are on strike, holding up 40% of all goods coming into the country by ship.  And we've just seen the first strikes at McDonalds and other fast food chains in New York City. Expect more.

Walking down the street in Madison, Wisc. at the Obama rally we saw this sign in the window and I asked my brilliant co-author Julie Coates why Gen Y likes unions.  She said what should have been obvious to me, that young people are generally underpaid, get few if any benefits, and only gets part time work. Yesterday our foster son Sammie called and said in his low wage high stress job he's not "valued" by his employer.

100 years ago unions made life better for people. They just might again.