There is now abundant research, studies and articles documenting how inaccurate school grading is damaging the U.S. economy.
The following are a few of the latest and best references related to the three major points:
I.School grading is inaccurate.
II. Inaccurate school grading is responsible for the lack of college graduates.
III. A lack of college graduates is damaging the economy.
I.School grading is inaccurate.
1.The classic study shows the majority of students receive grades that are not related to their learning and knowledge.
Nancy S. Cole and Warren Willingham studied millions of test scores on dozens of different tests and found only 46% of students are given grades appropriate to their level of learning and knowledge. Some 28% of students were given considerably worse grades than their learning documented. “Gender and Fair Assessment,” by Nancy S. Cole and Warren Willingham, Educational Testing Service, Routledge, 1997. https://www.routledge.com/Gender-and-Fair-Assessment/Willingham-Willingham-Cole-Willingham-Cole/p/book/9781138974944?srsltid=AfmBOop_F0eSH4JBwAl2ag2258alF7KctlfytAkh6GNK44bFEtG4aKt3
2.In 2023 Julie Coates and William A. Draves confirmed the data at the local school district level.
Due to the Wisconsin Open Records Act, Coates and Draves were able to receive GPA from local school districts. Only half of smart students who tested highly the ACT were given grades appropriate to their level of learning and knowledge.
This translates into 2 million smart students being denied access to higher education altogether every year. The study is attached.
- Another 2023 Study Confirms the Inaccuracy of Grades.
“If we graded schools on how accurately they grade students, they’d fail. Nearly six out of 10 course grades are inaccurate, according to a new study of gradesthat teachers gave to 22,000 middle and high school students in 2022 and 2023.” https://www.kqed.org/mindshift/64409/nearly-6-out-of-10-middle-and-high-school-grades-are-wrong-study-finds
4.Employers Do Not Believe GPA Accuracy.
“As we have seen in recent years, employer use of GPA as a screening tool is plummeting, down 35% from just five years ago. In this year’s survey, just 38.3% of respondents plan to use GPA as a criterion in their college hiring process.” -National Association of Colleges and Employers https://www.naceweb.org/
5.Google Does Not Consider GPA At All.
GPAs are not predictive: Google's SVP of People Operations, Laszlo Bock, says that GPAs are not predictive of who will be a successful employee.
“Based in part on these results, the SVP of People Operations at Google, Laszlo Bock, now says that GPAs are worthless in the hiring process, recognizing that grades as a metric are actually inversely correlated with innovation.”
6.Test scores are a better prediction of current and future learning and knowledge.
An article in The New York Times, January 12, 2024, by David Leonhardt shows the greater validity of test scores than grades in determining learning and knowledge.
II.Inaccurate school grading is responsible for the lack of college graduates.
7. Enrollment down by 1.2 million
Higher education enrollment is down 1.2 million students since 2014, according to the National Center for Education Statistics in the Department of Education. https://www.collegetransitions.com/blog/college-enrollment-decline/#:~:text=Undergraduate%20college%20enrollment%20increased%20from,during%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic.
8.Colleges are closing at the rate of one per week.
See “Colleges are now closing at a pace of one a week,” Washington Post, April 26, 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/04/26/college-closures-student-impact/
9.The student decline is leading to faculty layoffs.
See Inside Higher Education, August 8, 2024. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/faculty-issues/tenure/2024/08/08/decade-after-gop-bill-wiss-first-mass-tenured-faculty-layoff
10.Inaccurate grading keeps millions of smart students out of college.
Since 2000, 20 million smart students were denied access to college. The National Center for Education Statistics reports the decline in smart students. NCES nor any other source documents any reason other than the inaccurate grading of more than 50% of students, especially the 28% of students who are given worse grades than they deserve, for the shortage. https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=98#:~:text=In%20fall%202021%2C%20female%20students,percent%20(6.5%20million%20students).
11.The average age of college students is 28.
So these 20 million students are now age 18 to 38, still eligible for higher education.
12.Students are smarter today.
Test scores have not fallen significantly in the past 20 years, according to ACT and SAT. And the Flynn Effect demonstrates that average IQ of young people increases 3.3 points per decade. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/psychology/flynn-effect#:~:text=The%20Flynn%20effect%20(FE)%20is,Flynn%2C%201984%2C%201987).
III. A lack of college graduates is damaging the economy.
13. A country's economy becomes more productive as the proportion of educated workers increases.
A country's economy becomes more productive as the proportion of educated workers increases.
since educated workers can more efficiently carry out tasks that require literacy and critical thinking. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/education-training-advantages.asp#:~:text=A%20country's%20economy%20becomes%20more,require%20literacy%20and%20critical%20thinking.
14.Average wages are determined by the percentage of adults in the community having a four year college degree.
This was first reported by Economist Enrico Moretti of the University of California in his book The New Geography of Jobs, 2013, named the Best Business Book of the Year by Forbes.
Moretti also demonstrated that the average wages of high school graduates was also determined by the percentage of adults in the community having a four year college degree.
The U.S. Census Quick Facts confirms the relationship between college degrees and economic prosperity by city, county and state. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222
- Micro-chip shortage of workers.
“And the industry needs up to70,000 new workersto run the fabrication plants, known as “fabs.” These are not your grandparents’ manufacturing jobs. Many will be engineers and computer scientists.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/30/phoenix-biden-chips-fabs-workers/
16.College educated STEM workers are entering the country illegally.
The numbers of college educated STEM workers entering the country in 2024 is seven times higher than five years ago. See “How the broken immigration system is pushing skilled workers to enter illegally” by Youyou Zhou, Washington Post, July 24, 2024. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/china-india-skilled-workers-immigration/
17.Shortage of Food Animal Vets Increases Food Risks.
“The decline in food animal veterinarians in rural areas heightens concerns for a number of risks, including food safety threats, animal disease outbreaks, the potential passing of animal diseases to human populations, and decreasing rural economic growth.” “Schools Take Steps to Address Critical Rural Veterinarian Shortage,” by Erik Cliburn, April 18, 2023. https://www.insightintodiversity.com/schools-take-steps-to-address-critical-rural-veterinarianshortage/#:~:text=Schools%20Take%20Steps%20to%20Address%20Critical%20Rural%20Veterinarian%20Shortage,-By%20Erik%20Cliburn&text=The%20national%20shortage%20of%20farm,of%20hundreds%20of%20rural%20communities.
18.Shortage of Attorneys causes ‘constitutional crisis’.
In many states, a shortage of Public Defenders in rural counties is causing a constitutional crisis, according to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. https://www.wpr.org/news/state-supreme-court-appoints-committee-to-address-attorney-shortage-crisis
- The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death
“Deaths of despair, morbidity and emotional distress continue to rise in the US, largely borne by those without a college degree, the majority of American adults, for many of whom the economy and society are no longer delivering.” The Great Divide: Education, Despair, and Death, Anne Case and Angus Deaton. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9389919/ - Death by Despair and Economic Opportunity
Deaths of despair more than tripled between 1992 and 2017 among middle-aged White Americans without a bachelor’s degree, according to the Center for Disease Control.
There are now more than 50,000 young Americans, mostly in their 30s, dying each year from despair, the CDC reports.
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/deaths-of-despair-and-economic-opportunity
